Wednesday, January 03, 2007
Ignorance on the Air!
"Realtors tampering with MLS listings
The National Association of Realtors is at it again. The NAR is trying
to establish fixed commissions, despite the fact that they are against
the law. The organization is trying to use the Multiple Listing
Service (MLS) to keep business from the discount realtors. NAR reps
are actually delisting the discount realtor listings from this site.
The average real estate commission in the U.S. has dropped to 5
percent. And realtors are terrified that what happened in the travel
agency business is going to happen to them. So, they are trying to
stop the clock from marching forward by tampering with the listings.
The U.S. Justice Department has already filed suit against the NAR for
another issue. They will most likely jump on this one too. It's simply
wrong and should be against the law. People should be able to use any
kind of broker they would like. Clark uses a full-commissioned broker
because he believes she's worth it. But a discount broker who offers
fewer services might work for you. The industry is morphing, and part
of that is due to Foxtons, the full-service agency that only charges 3
percent commission. The company is only in the Northeast right now,
but it's growing like wildfire. So, the NAR is not going to succeed
with this mission no matter what."
This is spoken like a truly ignorant person in the media. The problem is that the "spin" is so great in these reports. This simply isn't true. The fact is that the limited service brokers do not comply with the MLS guidelines for which they join. As an interesting note, the consumers of Charleston have spoken: Limited Service Brokers don't work. Over the last 5 years, I can count more than a dozen of them that have come and gone. So, Clark: I know you're a big radio personality in Atlanta - but get your facts straight before your start bashing one of the largest and most ethical trade organizations in the World!
Give me a break! What kind of crack are you smoking? David Lareah is an idiot...He even bought condos in S.Florida as investments. How do you justify the NAR being the most ethical organization in the world??? I am dying to know.
The man is paid to lie and the NAR's sole goal is to blow smoke up consumers asses when the market is bad or real estate brokers like yourself feel the pain. The licensing to become a realtor is a joke.
David Lereah is a paid cheerleader for the National Association of Realtors, not a real economist. Put this article in your pipe and smoke on it. Real Estate is already busted in many parts of FL and this clown came to S FL to say I am bullish and I am even dumb enough to invest down here.
Economist tells Boca seminar there is no real estate bubble
Published Monday, May 15, 2006
More than 50 people turned out for an investor seminar recently hosted by Keyes Company/Realtors and held at Belaire Boca, a community of luxury condominiums and townhomes in Boca Raton.
The featured speaker for the evening was David Lereah, senior vice president/chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. Lereah is also the author of "Why The Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust & How You Can Profit From It: How To Build Wealth In Today's Expanding Real Estate Market."
Lereah was quick to make his message clear: "You don't need a boom for real estate to roar. The real estate boom is over but the real estate expansion is still here." Although homes are not selling as quickly right now, prices are still up. "There are no real estate bubbles, only balloons that expand and contract," he said.
Lereah substantiated that good news by presenting numerous facts. The 14-year real estate expansion (1991-2005) resulted in a U.S. mortgage market that increased tenfold during that time. Low mortgage rates resulted in a refinancing boom, as consumers became more comfortable with the process.
He said the real estate boom was caused by factors such as lenders being able to reduce financing costs; baby boomers reaching their peak earning years and trading up or buying second, third and vacation homes.
"Forty percent of all home sales in 2005 were second homes - investment properties and vacation homes - compared to about 9 percent 10 years ago," Lereah said.
Baby boomer children are in their first-time home buying years, and immigrants have also impacted home sales across the nation.
"Real estate is not an irrational investment, but speculators purchased irrationally during the boom, especially in areas like Miami. This drove prices up, and many speculators took out interest-only loans. This produced a vulnerable real estate market," Lereah explained. "In 2006, we are cleansing the market of speculation."
In 2007, Lereah believes that the real estate market will continue to expand even if mortgage rates increase to 7 percent. "That is still low," he said.
Buying real estate has advantages, too. "It is the most leveraged asset and there are tax advantages…Real estate needs to play a role in your investment and retirement portfolio. You should diversify," Lereah said.
He added that he is bullish on Florida, Arizona and Nevada because of even greater population increases. "The law of supply and demand works."
All of Lereah's real estate investments are in condominiums and townhomes because he doesn't want to be involved in maintaining them. "If you're Mr. Fix It, then it's okay to invest in a single-family home," he said.
Lereah also pointed out that he has invested in several condominium conversions. "Condo conversions are good because the property is already there."
Was it just last month that Greenspan and David Lereah at the National Association of Realtors were declaring a bottom in housing?
That myth was shattered on November 17th when the Census Bureau released the Residential Construction Report for October 2006.
Building Permits
Building permits fell 6.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,535,000.
Building permits fell 28.0 percent from the October 2005 rate of 2,131,000.
Single-family authorizations in October were at a rate of 1,173,000. This is 3.8 percent below the September figure of 1,219,000.
Housing Starts
Housing starts fell 14.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,486,000.
Housing starts fell 27.4 percent from the October 2005 rate of 2,046,000.
Single family housing starts in October were at a rate of 1,177,000. This is 15.9 percent below the September figure of 1,400,000.
This was a record 9th consecutive decline in housing permits as well as the lowest permit total since December 1997. Housing permits are a leading indicator so a further deterioration of future economic activity is to be expected.
New Home Sales
Lereah was crowing about new home sales back on October 26 when Commerce Department reports showed “New-home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly rose for a second month in September as selling prices declined by the most since 1970. Purchases increased 5.3 percent to an annual pace of 1.075 million during the month from a 1.021 million rate in August. The median price of a new home dropped 9.7 percent from a year earlier, partly a result of more sales of homes priced less than $200,000 and fewer purchases of more expensive houses. “
New home sales may have risen in theory but in actual practice it is likely that sales declined considerably. The reason is that cancellations are not reflected in new home sales stats and cancellations have been soaring.
Cancellations
D.R. Horton (DHI) reported a cancellation rate of 40%, compared with 29% a year ago.
Meritage Homes (MTH) reported a 37% cancellation rate, compared with 21% a year ago.
Standard Pacific (SPF) reported a 50% cancellation rate compared with 18% a year ago.
The overall average cancellation rate for big builders was at 40%, about twice as high as last year's levels, according to the WSJ.
Bottom Calling
Lereah was not the only bottom caller in housing. When the the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) "exploded" by three points from 30 to 33 in the last two months, NAHB spokesmen offered these comments just one day prior to the release of the disastrous October housing starts data.
“More and more builders are seeing light at the end of the tunnel,” said NAHB President David Pressly, a home builder from Statesville, N.C. “Our members are telling us that the market is steadying after a significant downward correction. On the demand side, we look for sales to stabilize and gradually move up in the coming months.”
“With home prices leveling off, mortgage interest rates remaining near historic lows, energy prices declining and the economy continuing to generate solid growth in employment and household income, affordability is now on the mend and many consumers recognize that home buying conditions have improved,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. “Builders are picking up on this change in market momentum.”
I will not comment on your blog anymore which leaves you with 0 people commenting.
If you continue to believe your own hype about Mr. Lareah and the NAR I know of some condos in S FL you can buy. Maybe you can be neighbors with your buddy, Mr. Lareah who is so bullish on FL as the real estate market (especially condos) down here is tanking.
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