Sunday, November 19, 2006
The CEO Report.
WOW! Real Estate is picking back up again. But, before the media pastes the headline, let me say it first: "How long will it last?" Now, don't get your camping gear out for another all-nighter to buy a condo - those days are over. But, I'm seeing some very healthy signs. For instance, our Mount Pleasant South office (of Weichert, Realtors) is having its best month in nearly six months. One agent in my North office sold $1.8 million worth of real estate this weekend and my Charleston office is on track for it's monthly goal. Those stars haven't aligned since July when our market hit the "big brick wall." For the third month in a row, the unsold inventory numbers are stable (this number usually has to be stable or declining for six months to see a real change in days on market or price corrections - so we still have three more months of stability needed to make a huge impact on the "supply and demand" department).
What's happening, according to our research, is people are getting their home sold in VA, DC, NJ, NY and more. My wife's father has been trying to sell his Manhatten condo for months - and finally got a contract at an excellent price. Weichert's $74 billion in sales (while a little off earlier in the year) from 2005 will be hit again in this, 2006 (a tie of the record). I've seen three multiple offer situations (in casual passing) in the last 7 days. Believe it or not, we've only have three real hard market segments right now (well let's make that four): Mount Pleasant as a whole has a huge supply (but healthy buyer supply), $200,000-$400,000 price range has 2550 listings (way to many investors trying to flip - but they're starting to become landlords by the day), and condos/townhomes (there's a ton of those). The fourth, builders with too much speculative inventory - and those neighborhoods with a huge builder presence on the "for sale" market.
The good news is - that new supply has come to a screeching halt. What we see on the market, today, is likely not to balloon (in supply) for some time to come. Some builders have really pulled back their speculative building plan. The word on the street is that some major builders are pulling back from original building plans and tearing up contracts. This is great news for real estate owners and buyers, meaning that the cycle of undersupply (hitting us again) is mere months (18-36) away.
What's HOT now? North Charleston....Summerville under $200,000. Goose Creek under $200,000. And, as a side note, there were 70 units over $1,000,000, marketwide, to close in the last 60 days. I wouldn't say that's a "hot market" but I wouldn't call it "cold" either.
What's NOT HOT? A townhome/condo in Charleston County (bargains galore right now - notice I didn't say don't buy), A Centex home (over $35,000,000 in inventory sitting as of a week ago by Centex), a $300,000-$500,000 house in Mount Pleasant. And, while this is a great time to get a price you would have never dreamed one year ago, $500,000-1,000,000 is bargain city. There are some awesome homes in those price ranges! And, a lot of them are new.
Buy informed, but buy now. I predict a rate DECREASE in the first six months of 2007 which spells momentum for real estate sales and price increases.
What's happening, according to our research, is people are getting their home sold in VA, DC, NJ, NY and more. My wife's father has been trying to sell his Manhatten condo for months - and finally got a contract at an excellent price. Weichert's $74 billion in sales (while a little off earlier in the year) from 2005 will be hit again in this, 2006 (a tie of the record). I've seen three multiple offer situations (in casual passing) in the last 7 days. Believe it or not, we've only have three real hard market segments right now (well let's make that four): Mount Pleasant as a whole has a huge supply (but healthy buyer supply), $200,000-$400,000 price range has 2550 listings (way to many investors trying to flip - but they're starting to become landlords by the day), and condos/townhomes (there's a ton of those). The fourth, builders with too much speculative inventory - and those neighborhoods with a huge builder presence on the "for sale" market.
The good news is - that new supply has come to a screeching halt. What we see on the market, today, is likely not to balloon (in supply) for some time to come. Some builders have really pulled back their speculative building plan. The word on the street is that some major builders are pulling back from original building plans and tearing up contracts. This is great news for real estate owners and buyers, meaning that the cycle of undersupply (hitting us again) is mere months (18-36) away.
What's HOT now? North Charleston....Summerville under $200,000. Goose Creek under $200,000. And, as a side note, there were 70 units over $1,000,000, marketwide, to close in the last 60 days. I wouldn't say that's a "hot market" but I wouldn't call it "cold" either.
What's NOT HOT? A townhome/condo in Charleston County (bargains galore right now - notice I didn't say don't buy), A Centex home (over $35,000,000 in inventory sitting as of a week ago by Centex), a $300,000-$500,000 house in Mount Pleasant. And, while this is a great time to get a price you would have never dreamed one year ago, $500,000-1,000,000 is bargain city. There are some awesome homes in those price ranges! And, a lot of them are new.
Buy informed, but buy now. I predict a rate DECREASE in the first six months of 2007 which spells momentum for real estate sales and price increases.
